뉴질랜드 금리 8.25%로 또 인상돼

  뉴질랜드, 금리(OCR) 8.25%로 또 인상

 

          

 뉴질랜드 중앙은행 알란 볼라드총재는 현금 기준 금리(official cash interest rates) 를 8.25%로 인상한다고 발표했다.

 

 25일 오전 추가 금리 인상을 발표하며 볼라드 총재는 최근 4회에 걸친 금리 인상 뒤 더 이상의 추가 인상은 없으며, 아마 이것이 마지막이 될 것이라는 힌트와 함께, 뉴질랜드 경제에 적절한 때에 “very good news”일 것이라고 밝혔다.

 

뉴질랜드 달러 환율은 이 발표 뒤 US80.25c에서 US 80.08로 떨어졌다.

 

 각계의 반대에도 단행된 이번 현금 기준 금리의 4번째 추가 인상은 이달 초 뉴질랜드 달러 강세로 인한 예상치 보다 높은 인플레이션 억제용이라고 해석된다.  

 

오늘 볼라드 총재는 "매우 높은 수준"의 뉴질랜드 달러는 수출업자를 힘들게 하고 있으며,  현재와 같이 현기증을 느낄 만큼 높은 수준에 머물게 하지는 않을 것이라고 환율 시장에 경고했다.

 

 최근 키위 달러 강세는 미국 달러의 약세와 함께 뉴질랜드인들의 높은 대출 수요에 따른 것이라고 말하며 “높은 뉴질랜드 달러는 장기간 지속되지 않을 것이며, 투자자는 이런 점을 간과해서는 안될 것이다”고 밝혔다.

 

또 “현금 기준 금리 추가 인상으로 이제 뉴질랜드인들이 저축을 많이 하게 될 것이다”고 기대했다. 그는 “뉴질랜드인들이 대출을 자제하기 시작했고, 인플레이션도 억제되고 있는 것으로 판단한다”고 덧붙였다.

 

 The sharp lift in the kiwi, particularly the steep ascent in the past week or so which saw it top US81c, had led to pleas from exporters, some economists and other commentators for Dr Bollard to stay his hand today.

 

But Dr Bollard said the New Zealand economy was running strong.

"We are recording continued big increases in international commodity prices, especially dairy, reflecting solid world demand for our products," he said.

"This is very good news for New Zealand. Given this positive situation, some of the negative commentary circulating about the economy is unwarranted.

"However, the continued tight labour market, high capacity use, and rising oil and food prices all point to sustained inflationary pressures. That is why we are increasing the OCR today."

UBS economist Robin Clements said the key message was that Dr Bollard did not expect further tightening.

"They refer to some signs that bank borrowing is starting to slow a little bit, so suggesting that hikes so far are starting to have some effect, and they believe they've done enough.

"But easing is going to be a considerable time away unless the economy softens very rapidly."

Cameron Brewer of the Newmarket Business Association described Dr Bollard's move as "like firing live rounds into a retreating crowd"

He said all Auckland's retailing districts had been reporting a very flat winter and all the empirical evidence was already pointing downwards.

The hike was unnecessary as consumer spending and confidence had been falling for months. He said retailers were experiencing their toughest winter since the Asian financial crisis a decade ago.

"Let's not forget that Dr Bollard has not dropped the OCR since 24 July 2003 and in fact for the last four announcements it has gone up.

"This instrument alone has already been starting to bite and wear down consumers."

"It has been a particularly cold winter in Auckland, but it seems the economic chills are far from over," Mr Brewer said.

NZ First MP Doug Woolerton said today's hike highlighted deficiencies in the Reserve Bank, which NZ First is attempting to revise.

It reflected the flawed logic of relying on just interest rates to control monetary policy, he said.

[뉴질랜드헤럴드]